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Understanding Market and Economic Complexities

2023 Third Quarter Capital Update

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2023 Q2 Market Commentary

Equity markets rallied during the quarter despite modestly lower earnings and an increase in the Federal Funds rate to 5.00% / 5.25% (Exhibit 1). The Nasdaq 100, powered by large technology companies, led the way again, now up a whopping 39.4% YTD. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (“SPX”) advanced 8.7% during the quarter, more than doubling the equal weighted version of the same constituents. Bonds lost marginal value with interest rates rising modestly.

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Market Note: After a Credit Downgrade – Now What?

On July 31, Treasury announced that it had boosted its third-quarter borrowing estimate to just over $1 trillion, up from a previous estimate of $733 billion. This is the second largest quarterly borrowing on record, outdone only by the $3 trillion borrowed in Q2 2020 in the midst of the pandemic. We need to pause and reflect on this event!

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