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Equity markets rallied during the quarter despite modestly lower earnings and an increase in the Federal Funds rate to 5.00% / 5.25% (Exhibit 1). The Nasdaq 100, powered by large technology companies, led the way again, now up a whopping 39.4% YTD. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (“SPX”) advanced 8.7% during the quarter, more than doubling the equal weighted version of the same constituents. Bonds lost marginal value with interest rates rising modestly.
On July 31, Treasury announced that it had boosted its third-quarter borrowing estimate to just over $1 trillion, up from a previous estimate of $733 billion. This is the second largest quarterly borrowing on record, outdone only by the $3 trillion borrowed in Q2 2020 in the midst of the pandemic. We need to pause and reflect on this event!
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