Michael Carlin

Hi this is Michael Carlin president of Henry and Horne Wealth Management with your Manage the Funds Podcast today. We are going to do our third quarter market outlook and we are joined by Joe Taiber of Taiber cosmology. I can’t thank you enough for squeezing us in today I appreciate it very very much. I know you got a real busy calendar so I’m hoping for the first time in quarterly market outlook history. If we could do this in 30 minutes it would not only be a miracle but it would be I know amazing for your schedule too. So let’s see if we can make that happen.

Joe Taiber

I am on board and happy to join you as always Michael.

Michael Carlin

Thank you. Thank you. All right. So let’s just jump right into it. So this economic expansion that we’ve seen that started in March of 2009 has now eclipsed the market expansion the economic expansion that ended in March of 2001 with the dot.com bubble bursting. We’ve had that one hundred and twenty one months as soon as we crossed out it’s the longest economic expansion since 1945. We’ve talked about this before in the fact that we’re going to spend a little bit of time on this that despite the fact that this is in terms of length the longest economic expansion it hasn’t been the most robust growth of any economic expansion we’ve seen.

It’s it’s been pretty good from that standpoint in terms of how much growth we’ve seen but it hasn’t been as explosive as say the one that ended in 2001 the dot.com bubble bursting or the one that ended in 1969 or the one that ended in 1990 or even nineteen fifty three for that matter. So Joe we all kind of wonder how much how much gas we have left in the tank proverbially speaking about this economic expansion. What’s your take.

Joe Taiber

Well that’s the crystal ball question and I mean our read our baseline read here is that there’s still a little room to go you know. And that’s largely contingent on what we think are just some very friendly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies not just here in the US that are taking shape but also globally.

Michael Carlin

I did see a really interesting slide Joe that I wanted to talk about. That’s the breaking the long term trend slide in again anybody in the audience and you guys do a great job. Email us at info@hh-wm.com for a copy of the slide deck. It’s called breaking the long term trend and what it shows is that if you go back to 1966 and move forward all the way to present and it has got a red line that shows if the U.S. economy were to grow at three point one percent how much our economy in terms of size would be and in terms of how long this economic expansion would be in and how large our economy would be.

But you can see that as soon as we had the financial crisis in 2008 the economic recovery that we had which we know it hasn’t been as robust as other economic recoveries has left a three trillion dollar gap in terms of where we are now in our total GDP size versus where we would like to be if we met historical standards but that three trillion dollar gap translates into twenty three thousand dollars per U.S. household and it to me I look at that Joe and I say you know what maybe this has part of the reason locked in it why there’s some angst with U.S. consumers U.S. voters.

Joe Taiber

Breaking the long term trend the gap between three point one percent GDP growth and what we actually experienced the three trillion dollar gap. Two things on that one. I think partly the slide refers to the wealth gap and the wealth gap as I guess in political parlance. I would categorize more as income inequality. The percentage of income being earned by the top say 1 percent or top 10 percent relative to the rest. That’s that’s I think the political hot button that’s out there a lot in the press right now. I think this chart and that’s certainly there and tangible and real. The chart however I think refers to the overall GDP the lack of historical trend GDP growth since 2008.

And Michael I guess how I’d frame that is a bit more of a silver lining only because how we see that is working off the debt supercycle that occurred ending in 2008. It took 10 years for us to work off particularly the consumer side of an overly leveraged economy. Specifically I’m obviously in the housing and mortgage side but it took a decade plus which by the way a lot of our research houses were calling for a protracted period of underwhelming growth as we work off that that debt overhang. Today we’ve we’re looking at that and potentially as an opportunity because what that results in is in under investment in cyclical spending for a long period of time.

Another way of saying pent up demand. So as we as we look forward with regard to this GDP gap that we have here I think we can make a pretty strong argument that we have aged very aged capital stock and that’s things like factories and and certainly homes the average age of the home is five years longer now than what it was in 2006. So there’s there’s kind of an upside to this gap in GDP growth. And then I guess less fortunate downside or reality of the wealth gap. That’s that’s happened because of that. But hopefully that gives you a little bit of guidance.

Michael Carlin

It does and I and I do I do see the same things that you’re seeing and you mentioned briefly about residential real estate which has just is just not recovered we haven’t built the homes that we needed to build. But yet at the same time we have really nice balance because the job market so strong and the consumer is feeling pretty good which gets me into some of the other data about how the consumer is with the consumer confidence measures albeit not as high as they they were recently when they peaked but still very high unemployment rate is about as great as you could possibly see since the you know really the 60s.

So this has been an incredible run for the consumer in the fact that they’re working. This is great. You know in terms of the fact that they have jobs and then you throw in the fact that wages have been particularly good too. So with wages with the job market being strong to us the consumer looks good here. Are you seeing the same thing.

Joe Taiber

Yeah I absolutely would concur. I mean unemployment confidence and wages are the three things that we really do key eye on wages are beginning to percolate. In fact wages are one of the most commonly cited cost pressures currently happening in second quarter earnings calls with company managements so wage gains. Now that we’re over 3 percent the most recent was about three point one percent but nearer term i.e. the last several months. You’re seeing numbers closer to three point five to three point eight percent so wage gains is something that everybody’s been waiting on.

It’s finally we think beginning to take shape and that’s that’s really evidenced by just last week in fact the retail sales number came out for June and it was much stronger than expected. That’s on the back of a decent April and May. So we’re seeing some positive signs. You know certainly people spending money on the consumer health.

Michael Carlin

You know and if you look we’ve got the post tax reform the how how and when the income growth started to surge and the income growth is the fastest it’s been since the market corrected in March of ’09. And you can point to when the tax cut was enacted to an average hourly rate earnings surged which was great in 2018.

I don’t think a lot of people knew but the bottom 10 percent of income earners had their fastest income growth ever so this isn’t a political market outlook that’s a whole different thing. So we’re not going to talk about the way that Trump delivers his message. But there is there is something in here and there is something to be said about what the tax cut didn’t provided for wages and how the poorest income earners are benefiting in this economic surge that we’re having right now.

Joe Taiber

It’s been absolutely a point in time and and everybody I think knows that that small or medium sized businesses were we’re very very significant benefactors of the tax cuts and that did certainly bleed through into you know average hourly earnings and the lower thresholds of the income earners know benefiting indirectly as well. So very very much a good thing.

Michael Carlin

And it’s something else that was a good thing I think. And I just think it’s getting lost. I don’t see it anywhere in the headlines is what we talked about that the tax reform a little bit. But let’s get specific about repatriating foreign dollars repudiating U.S. dollars that were sitting in foreign bank accounts and bringing the money back from overseas to here. And the latest data that I’ve seen shows that about half of all the cash that was sitting overseas that corporations left there they didn’t want to bring it back because they don’t want to pay U.S. tax rates did bring half that money back and paid the reduced U.S. tax rates which was a great kind of short term tax revenue base for four for the government which is terrific.

And I think it bears mentioning that it was like what nine hundred billion dollars is what we saw in the in five quarters coming back to U.S. soil. And if you look at the S&P 500 companies what their plans were with all that money that nine hundred billion dollars what they brought back they did the following May they increased dividends and did share buybacks. They pay down debt. They did mergers and acquisitions. They bought other companies. They they were helping with their own U.S. liquidity. Johnson and Johnson and Wal-Mart are a few of those that were helping with their own liquidity in investing in their business and capex capital expenditures capital spending.

You know Pfizer, Pepsi, you know Caterpillar, Noble Energy, there were many that took that money from overseas brought it back and did all the right things. So we’re seeing a little bit of a multiplier effect. It appears as though from from what happened in 2018 and we’re seeing and reaping some of those benefits this year but with all that financial activity I just thought there would be more growth if you’re bringing nine hundred billion dollars back and doing all these great things. Joe how come I’m not seeing more growth. How come. Because it shouldn’t this shouldn’t this be the 4 percent number shouldn’t be that that’s a lot of money.

Joe Taiber

Well good question. And I think the answer is this the answer is that there’s and you know this full well Michael two thirds of the U.S. economy is the consumer. And while this bodes really well for capital expenditures and the stock market I mean dividends debt pay down and MBNA you’re seeing the growth in the stock market we’re up 20 percent. You know for the first six and a half months roughly which does not happen often in fact it hasn’t happened since 1995. So I think this played very much into financial market gains and hopefully business spending and CapEx ticks up a little bit more than what it has. But GDP growth I don’t. Not quite a call a direct correlation there I guess.

Michael Carlin

Yeah and you’re right. I mean it certainly seems to be I guess to your point a stock market correlation but maybe not so much we’re not seeing it flow through to the U.S. GDP numbers and an and so I do want to turn a little bit of attention towards well let’s let’s do the quiz to global PMI because we have we’re having this you know this kind of great renaissance with the stock market having the kind of year that it hasn’t had in a long time. It’s been a great six month seven month run really.

We’re going to talk about whether or not that’s going to continue here soon. And I’m looking at things like you know the global manufacturing PMI or essentially what the Globe is putting out as a globe growing or is the globe shrinking economically and global PMI has been falling down a cliff. Really 2018 and through today where we finally got a negative contracting number on global PMI. So it’s been a little bit of a different story where we’re having a renaissance here in the U.S. stock market where we have a lot of good economic factors that are working for us with the jobs and wages as we’ve mentioned.

But you’ve got this global PMI with this downward trend that gave us a contractionary reading. How worried even though were you and I were constructive on the market but how worried do you feel or believe that global contracting PMI is now.

Joe Taiber

Yeah I’m concerned for sure. PMI Purchasing Managers Index for those of you on the call is is a really good read on global manufacturing activity and like Michael said absolutely it’s fallen off a cliff both in Europe Asia and now finally the U.S. has followed suit. The US in fact dropped from the low 60s.

And by the way anything in excess of a 50 reading is expansionary and anything less than is contractionary. Manufacturing sector so so we’re in the US we’ve fallen from the low 60s to the low 50s a ten point drop which is a draconian drop. I was at an investment committee meeting with with Michael and the team at Henry+Horne just last week in fact we talked about this specific very concerning trend. And one of the research houses that that we shared with the folks at Henry+Horne did a really great piece on does this mean that the stock market or the global economy are going to tip into recession and the long story short there.

The answer is is no given with the assumption that the policymakers specifically you know the PBA would see the Fed the Bank of England the ECB et cetera respond. And it seems to us at least that that’s certainly what the cards look like right now. So yes concerning given a proper response but also this is not out of the ordinary or let’s say this this is not it would not be unforeseen or unprecedented to see a 10 point drop in the PMI but not tip into recession that that happens frequently as long as there are no other significant imbalances out there in the economy and we don’t really see any significant imbalances right now in in the UK in the cases where the report that we did share with Michael with in the cases where you saw a significant drop in this statistic and banks central banks responded accordingly. The financial markets rebound really nicely and continue to perform really nicely as it you know as we avert recession. So concerning yes watching closely yes. Hopeful yes still which is why we’re constructive.

Michael Carlin

So we urge our listeners to tune in to the People’s Bank of China. And we need him we stay tuned. We need them to respond and respond aggressively and you know to Joe’s point. I think that you know the market’s expectation is we’re going to see a rate cut here very soon and that is our Federal Reserve doing their part. You would like to think that the worldwide banks are going to go ahead and do theirs. So we’re going to see this coordinated coordinated global move on the central banks to to help push the economies higher globally so hopefully it’ll be a reversal there.

So this will be hopefully history repeating itself from the standpoint of central banks doing that they need to do in the market responding positively which is how we’re positioned right now with client portfolios.

The thing that we can’t control the thing that we don’t that we don’t know what the outcome is going to be more so than anything else in my opinion is the tariff. And on one hand we see that that that Trump really needs this win to continue his air of good feelings in terms of what he is doing proactively and positively for our economy more so we feel like the the Chinese government and Chinese economy more importantly they need to win because their economic growth is as slow as it has been in recorded history certainly the past number of decades.

So with China definitely slowing down they need a deal. We could use a deal and yet we still have this tariff talk that concerns me because you can look and point to exactly when the trade war started in as soon as it started. We talk about cap ex or capital spending or what businesses are are going ahead and spending money on. And as soon as we announced the trade war you can see cap ex drop off a cliff. You can see that that that just completely goes away. So I’d really like to see this reversed and at the same time Joe the bond market also tells us another story.

So you got the cap ex on one side that that’s concerned about the tariffs and then you’ve got the bond market on the other side into me the bond market is you know again it’s a larger in size than the stock market it tends to be the real institutional should be the smart money investors what are they doing. And if you’re looking at the bond market it is on every single announcement Davos speech when Round 1 tariffs Round 2 when Trump is in President Z have dinner or around 3:00 every single time there’s bad news about the tariffs you’re seeing the bond market get more and more concerned and conservative.

So we’re seeing tariff talk hurt potential capital capital spending that for businesses we’re seeing the bond market start to get nervous about this potential tariff. So with all of that Joe we got to see a deal right. It’s going to happen because if it doesn’t it. To me it’s it’s concerning. What do you think.

Joe Taiber

Yeah I know you said it. We absolutely it is without a question it is the biggest contributor to call it global uncertainty and probably the biggest risk. I concur Michael with you and probably the biggest risk to global growth. Businesses have a difficult time making decisions on a shifting landscape in an uncertain landscape. Number one the inflationary effects of tariffs would be extremely concerning. As we look to a global central banks to cut rates they’re going to have a much more challenging time doing it. If in fact they’re doing it in the face of inflation so very much a risk handicapping it at this point.

We’re shrugging their shoulders. It’s not something that we can get in in terms of handicapping poets and poets decisions on trade on the trade front the terror front. I think I went went on record with at least a half dozen institutional clients about a year and a half ago saying there’s absolutely no way this will ever actually happen.

Michael Carlin

Okay. Well my fingers are crossed. Yeah I know it. It seems the divine can defy conventional wisdom but I guess we’ll have to see. But but there is no OK so we’ll not listen. So here’s here’s what what I promised my listeners and here’s what we promise our clients is that and you do the same Joe and that to some degree I’m sure and that is if there is a change if we meaning if we feel like the tariff is the tariff talks are not going to be resolved then you’ll hear from us because we will be making some proactive moves if indeed we say yes.

No. OK. They’re definitely off. We’re probably going to have to have some type of meaningful course change with with our portfolio so we can further protect them right now. Our base our base clients are not 60 40 we’re more actually 40 60 right now. So we have taken some steps to be conservative. We have had taken some steps to take some profits off the table. But you’ll hear from us in that and that brings us to to the Fed. The Fed cutting rates. So you know the Fed looks like they’re going to cut rates here soon.

And so I saw this interesting chart. I thought I’d share with you. And it shows the last four times the Fed cut rates three of them. The market did not do well and the one time that it did was in that it was in the mid 90s. You know where. So the question is with this rate cut are we going to get the kind of economic response and market response that we’re hoping for. And I think again I’m leaning on kind of that global PMI research that we just talked about a couple of minutes ago as Fed doing the right thing and the market responding positively because it seems like there are a few instances particularly the last two in 2007 and 2001 when the Fed cut and the market didn’t respond.

But I think that we’re probably going to agree that there were a lot of other things going on at the same time.

Joe Taiber

Yeah. How we’re reading rates and Fed policy here. Michael I’d say the market stands to be very disappointed if the Fed doesn’t cooperate and I think cooperating we define as a 25 basis point cut in July and another 25 basis point cut in September. I we we don’t think that the market will necessarily be poised to rally if they meet that expectation. I think the market to be poised to rally if they exceed that expectation and go deeper than that. So I think we’re a bit asymmetric in terms of how we’re we’re reviewing the upside relative to Fed policy.

Looking forward the historical rate cuts. Looking back at the last you know five rate cuts and we’ve done a lot of work on the market environment at the time. Rate cuts were delivered. Whether that’s you know this is not the first time the Fed would be cutting rates for instance with the stock market sitting at a record high that happened. Yes back in the mid 90s that happened also in nineteen eighty nine. So this is something that happens without question. But I really think that where we are right here the Fed is sort of backed itself into a corner but I think it’s a corner they needed to be backed into and they were backed into by the market. The market essentially decides when rate cuts need to happen and the Fed decides when rate hikes need to happen. And that’s that’s kind of how we read those tea leaves.

Michael Carlin

Well we’re on the same page there too. So. So Joe I do. I just I do want to quickly point out because to me this is an outstanding statistic. There’s more than now 13 trillion dollars worldwide that has a negative of money that institutions and individual investors alike have put to work earning a negative rate of interest. That was as recently as the third quarter of 2013 it was 6 trillion which sounded like a lot of money earning a negative rate or interest at that time.

It’s now 13 trillion this negative rate environment something that you and I are going to have to continue to keep our finger on the pulse of. Because what I don’t want to have happen is I don’t want the US to go the way of the rest of the developed world in terms of having a negative rate environment which has a whole lot of other complications. So to me this is a this is a perfect segway into our special piece for this quarter which is going to be the the economic and political environment from the perspective of the stock market.

So so what I wanted to do Joe just on a real high level is talk a little bit about you know the volatility in that we’re seeing it’s like six of the last seven elections that we’ve had. There has been the party in power has been removed. And so you know we’re seeing this time and time again we’re seeing that you know there was a change in control for the House the Senate and or the White House 2006, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018. It just seems like it’s becoming more and more regular the cycles with which we’re seeing the party in power losing power you know yet at the same time if you look historically back to you know everybody going you know going back this is this is going to you can go back almost 100 years and if we haven’t been in a recession the odds of getting re-elected are really good.

But if we are in a recession the odds of getting re-elected are decidedly worse. So if there is a recession two years before re-election like Bush I, Carter, Ford, Hoover, and Taft none of them got re-elected. The one that did was Coolidge. You know again there’s always gotta be an exception to the rule but that certainly doesn’t bode well for a Trump administration if they were to see a recession this year but it seems very unlikely we’re gonna get a recession this year and even more so from 1948 to 2017 the third year of a presidential term we haven’t seen a recession in the third year of a presidential term during this very long market cycle so.

So Joe here that here’s the question is that it doesn’t seem like we’re going to have a recession this year which would go along with historical standards. But it does feel like we’re gonna continue along with this cycle of continuing to change which parties in power as there is this again probably best way to describe it is the wealth gap that we opened up with. And I just wonder because you and I grew up and you’ve been in this longer than I have in you and I have grown up in this field and it didn’t used to be something we had to pay such close attention to politics when we’re crafting portfolio strategy but it seems like it has evolved differently and it looks different. What do you think Joe.

Joe Taiber

Yeah definitely a lot of wild cards with respect to the financial markets and the current political cycle. No question. And I think that’s largely because of some of the while the outcome aside I mean what happens with the presidency what happens with the Senate what happens with the House are the three big question marks and still obviously Michael really early on but we’re beginning to see some of the handicaps come in and you know the Senate is likely to retain or be retained by the Republicans the House is likely to be retained by the Democrats and the presidency is I think a bit of a crapshoot but it was I with the presidency I think the biggest thing as it pertains to driving client portfolios does sit in the White House in this case and that’s because of some of the economic philosophies if you call them that or theories or approaches from the Democratic side of the aisle in particular are things that we’ve never seen really here in the United States and I think everybody on the call probably knows what I’m talking about these are these are more more socialist oriented Modern Monetary Theory is another term that’s being bandied about in the political circles which are things that really haven’t been accepted broadly in the United States.

I don’t know at this point whether this is just pre-election polarization that ultimately will oscillate back toward the middle from a policy perspective which I think markets certainly would hope because if that does not happen if the policy approaches stay as polarized as they are right now I think that would that would definitely be very unsettling for markets as we look forward over the next really 12 months because things would ought to start to take shape certainly in that time frame.

But the outcome of the election is one thing and you know as it pertains to investment portfolio is this really right or not right around now July of 2019 is when we’re going to really start taking much much closer look at that potential outcome of the elections only because of what kind of policy outcomes may impact financial markets.

Michael Carlin

And I have had a few clients that have been very clear when they said if a Democrat wins I want out of stocks. We’re gonna have to cross that bridge when we get to it but we’re going to have to we’re going to have to see because it’s not just here in the United States but you can go to Greece or Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Spain, you name it in there is a populist or kind of an outsider new perspective that’s gaining ground all across Europe and across a lot of different parts of the world.

So it’s not just here we’re seeing in the United States it’s it’s everywhere and it’s leading to really interesting times and I just wanted to do one last political gain economic factor. And then we’ll get to conclusions and I thought that this chart was interesting. If you look in if we were to start let’s look at it this way. Right now are our debt to GDP ratio is is at 78 percent. That’s by the way a debt that’s held by U.S. households in U.S. institutions is at 78 percent. If we want to keep our U.S. debt to GDP at 78 percent obviously you could grow the economy.

But assuming the economy continues to grow at the rate that it has been growing and if we start we’re going to need to start cutting the are government spending by one point eight percent per year starting in 2020 if you start as late as 2025 to do spending cuts so that you can get the debt to GDP at 78 percent you’ve got to cut spending by two point two percent. If you wait to 2030 it’s two point seven percent.

So it’s something that we’ve at some point have to get this this debt in line in that we do need the government to continue to invest in and in our economy but at some point there has to be reason with which that the debt and deficit continue to climb and the spending continues to grow.

I don’t know how what you might want to add. I see you shaking your head yes. But I don’t know what it is that you want to add to that. I mean but we gotta do something at some point.

Joe Taiber

Well doing all add is that this used to be a calling card you know of the Republican side of the aisle you know more of fiscal prudence and the like which seems to have been abandoned you know this year we’re on tap. In fact the CBO just came out last week with the first nine months of fiscal year 2019 at a 750 billion dollar deficit. So we’re on tap to run our four I believe it’s our first trillion dollar deficit as an economy which takes us up to about 22 trillion dollars of debt.

So you know it’s something that you’re not really seeing it almost I think you and I were speaking the other day it’s almost as if you know the Republicans in some senses and the Democrats in some senses and here in the US are each trying to out populous the other in a lot of ways so it again it’s is a new political dynamic. But in politics aside our focus is is with yours is really just to try to dictate what this means for financial markets and that’s something that is definitely highly on our radar as we look forward in the next 12 months for sure.

Michael Carlin

And so our conclusion is that you know as we as we’ve mentioned throughout the podcast and that we we continue to be constructive on the market but cautiously so we are watching the tariff. We are watching the political environment exceptionally closely we are keenly aware of the market levels but should the behavior continue to be what we believe it will be which is the Fed doing what they need to do to push we get a the appropriate push from the central banks across the world. We don’t get any new new new surprises economically speaking from the president.

If you add up all of those factors which seems most likely to us then the market has a path to continue to roll forward in its current direction obviously should we not get any one of those factors that we would need to recalibrate and then figure out how we were going to adjust client portfolios accordingly but Joe how how else would you kind of look to wrap up our big our big conclusion here a big summary and what people should be doing besides listening to our podcast religiously.

I would I would concur. I would call this point in time cautiously constructive on risk assets in general those are corporate bonds or high yield bonds or or stocks for that matter and in that big contingency here is and the biggest dictator of financial market returns of those risk assets historically we think that doesn’t change today as is the liquidity backdrop. And that liquidity backdrop right now with you look at financial conditions both here in the US and globally is very very accommodative very supportive growth across the PMI and other manufacturing indices and service indices that we we do look to we think probably will respond to you know to see more accommodative policies.

So that takes us to you know right back towards that sort of cautiously and I say that we’re cautiously only because of these things that you pointed out Michael that the on the unforeseen or unpredictable I guess whether it’s trade policy or some geopolitical event obviously there’s there’s things stirring in the Middle East and things of that sort. So there’s always those things that prevail or that are looming I should say out there.

But keeping your nose to what you to the grindstone of what you can at least reasonably handicap. We feel we feel OK.

Michael Carlin

Right. So be proactive. But don’t guess please don’t guess you’ll never be able to perfectly get all in or get all out of the market. So again we’re happy to take you through it and we’re happy to share with you what we do and how we do it. Joe you’ve been amazing. As always we were we were under 40 minutes but we were more than 30. So this is something to aspire to. We can’t you know we’re not always going to hit home runs on timing but but I think we did a great job.

Thanks to you that wonderful job helping us cover the world economy again. Thank you appreciate it.

Joe Taiber

My pleasure.

Michael Carlin

With that I’m going to wrap up our third quarterly market outlook for 2019. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to e-mail us at info@hh-wm.com

Thank you so much and have a great day.

Joe Taiber

Thanks everyone. Thanks Michael.

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